Ammonium nitrate three main demand is expected to increase, but would be unlikely to return to high price
From 2009 to 2011, ammonium nitrate market appeared in 3 consecutive years of big bull market, the industry boom index hit a record high, prices by 1500 yuan (ton price, the same below) up to 3000 yuan, to become one of the few within a few years the price doubled variety fertilizer products, ammonium nitrate benefit of enterprise also increased.
However, after entering in 2012, due to the economic slowdown and new ammonium nitrate production increase effect of ammonium nitrate, the market was quiet, prices from the beginning of the 2400 yuan all the way down to the current 1800 yuan or so, basic fell to lows in recent years.
The market outlook, ammonium nitrate market there is a certain opportunity, ammonium nitrate explosive industry three main demand, exports are expected to increase, nitro compound fertilizer.
-- the industry demand increased revenuely explosive industry is the main force of ammonium nitrate demand, annual demand of about 3700000 tons of ammonium nitrate. The products are mainly used in mining, highway, railway construction and other construction and engineering related projects in mine, by the macroeconomic impact of large. In China's economic slowdown, China's economic policy adjustment, the second half of the year has been to increase railway construction, road construction and other infrastructure construction investment as an important means of stimulating economic growth, which will stimulate the demand, ammonium nitrate industry will also benefit from.
-- agricultural demand potential of nitro fertilizer has easy to dissolve, quick, is a kind of nitrogen fertilizer on the fastest, but can meet the demand of crop fertilization short tobacco, vegetables nitrate crop and growth stage, and ammonium nitrogen, amide nitrogen used rationally and increase crop yield, improve crop quality effect of. At present domestic vegetables, fruit, tobacco and other crops planting area has reached 500000000 acres, these economic crops on the theory of demand for nitro compound fertilizer quantity is 30000000 tons, compared with an annual output of about 5000000 tons, the market has great potential. Shaanxi is the biggest apple planting base, planting area of 8000000 mu, the entire Shaanxi only apple planting requires the nitro compound fertilizer 6400000 tons.
This year the nitro fertilizer is faced with good opportunities, the main reason is the ammonium nitrate in declining prices, so that the production cost of nitro fertilizer reduced, nitro fertilizer and compound fertilizer to narrow the price gap, nitro fertilizer sales growth this year.
In addition, compound fertilizer manufacturer production year nitro fertilizer economic benefit is also good. Shenzhen batian company production of nitrate-based compound fertilizer, according to securities company research, this year, the gross margin increased to about 18%.
-- exports worth looking forward to apply zero tariff to China's export of ammonium nitrate, is one of the few zero tariffs on fertilizer export varieties, very favorable for export. In recent years, our country ammonium nitrate exports show rapid growth. From 2005 to 2010 ammonium nitrate export volume has been maintained in the scale of 200000 tons, in 2011 increased to 392700 tons, a record high. This year and strive for further improvement, exports in the first 9 months has reached 350000 tons, the annual export volume is expected to be high.
In recent years, the international demand for ammonium nitrate year average growth rate of around 3%, the annual demand of about 42000000 tons. China's exports now accounts for only about 1% of the total international demand, there are relatively large increase in space. But our country the ammonium nitrate exports also face the international new device increased impact, Indonesia, South Africa, Australia and other countries are all arranged in the new ammonium nitrate, and some have been put into operation.
Look from the future development, the demand of ammonium nitrate will also continue to increase, but because of the output growth faster than the growth in demand, ammonium nitrate Market is still difficult to get rid of intense competition, the price back to the past is unlikely to high. Overall, the ammonium nitrate Market "golden period" has become a thing of the past. Relevant data shows, in recent years China's rapid growth in production capacity of ammonium nitrate, ammonium nitrate in 2009, China's production capacity of 5200000 tons, in 2010 increased to 6390000 tons, in 2011 rose to 7500000 tons, this year the domestic ammonium nitrate production capacity will add 1500000 tons, reaching 9000000 tons. Production capacity of annual average growth rate of 18.27%, while the average growth rate of demand is about 12%, higher than the growth rate of demand growth capacity.
At present, there are a lot of ammonium nitrate project under construction, such as an annual output of 300000 Hubei Yihua group is located in the town of Guizhou Xingyi city water tons, Inner Mongolia Datang Dingwang chemical with an annual output of 300000 tons of equipment, Guizhou Kailin annual production capacity of 150000 tons of ammonium nitrate, 300000 tons of compound fertilizer project, Shenhua Group the Hercynian to peak annual production capacity of 180000 tons of porous ammonium nitrate project Henan Province, Yima gasification plant with an annual output of 200000 tons of coal chemical industry park project, the stone with an annual output of 200000 tons, 200000 tons of ammonium nitrate crystals of porous ammonium nitrate project etc.. If the device is put into operation, the ammonium nitrate market competition will be more intense.
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